Last Friday, Digimind weighed in on the European Election results, using our social media analytics from Digimind Social to predict Sunday’s outcome. Today, we compare our social media stats with the real results of the #EP2014 elections, to see if our theory: “the more a voter talks about a party on social media, the greater the propensity that they will vote for that party” really adds up!

1. EU Parliament Results

In the ten days prior to the elections results on Sunday 25th May, Digimind Social monitored online mentions of the six most popular European parties. In the pie charts below, we put Digimind’s social media analytics and the EU Election results side-by-side, to see whether the parties which had balloters buzzing online, managed to secure their votes on Sunday:

Social Media Mentions vs Seats Secured:

EU elections results comparison 2

As you can see, the relative distributions are reasonably similar, suggesting that our hypothesis adds up: the more a party is mentioned on social media, the more likely people are to vote for them. The only discrepancies between the pie charts, are those of the European Greens, who received more mentions relative to number of seats secured and the Conservatives (ECR) who had minority mentions, but not the least seats secured on Sunday.

Table of rankings:

Digimind Social Media Mentions
(Highest to Lowest)

EU Parliament Seats Secured
(Highest to Lowest)

1. Socialists

1. EPP

2. EPP

2. Socialists

3. Greens

3. Liberals

4. Liberals

4. Greens

5. EFD

5. Conservatives

6. Left

6. Left

7. Conservatives

7. EFD

 

2. UK – European Election Results

Next, we monitored mentions from the UK of the 7 biggest UK parties on News channels and compared these figures with how they fared in the European Elections. Here’s what we found:

Social Media Mentions vs Seats Secured:

UK - EU Elections comparison

Our statistics show that UKIP were not only the joint most buzzed about party on News sources in the UK, but they also received 35% of the seats in the European Parliament this year. The Conservatives too, showed almost like-for-like mentions:seats, capturing approximately one quarter of all mentions and UK seats in the European Parliament elections. Interestingly, despite Labour’s lag in terms of social media mentions on news channels, the party pulled it off on Sunday, with over double the percentage of votes (29%) to mentions in the ten days leading up to the election.

The Lib Dems, however, proved anomalous in our analysis, as despite clinching 19% of all UK party mentions in the news, they only secured 1% of seats in the European Parliament elections. On closer inspection, this may be due to the combined skeptical sentiment of voters towards the party and its leader Nick Clegg:

UK Elections - Lib Dem sentiment

As for the smaller parties, the Greens caused veritable mentions madness, clinching a whopping 11% of mentions, which won the eco-friendly fiends a 4% share of UK seats in the European Parliament, representing four times as many seats as the Liberal Democrats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) were not so successful at drumming up mentions, but still managed to defend their two seats (3%), as did Plaid Cymru, the Welsh party campaigning for independence from the EU, who maintained 1 seat (1%) on the EU council. The British National Party (BNP), notorious for their extreme right-wing views, didn’t get a share of the seats this year, taking their tally down from two seats to zero seats.

Were you swayed by social?

So, there you have it social media managers, all you need to know about the EU elections and how they compare with Digimind’s social media statistics! It seems we really do live in an increasingly social world, where everything – including our political opinions – are being influenced and subtly swayed by social media. So is this scary or progressive? I’ll let you decide!

While you think that one over, why not sign up for a free live demo of our social media listening software, Digimind Social?

social media listening tool

Jerome Maisch
Marketing Manager @digimindci. Passionate about big data & social marketing. Photography, music and hiking lover

Leave a Reply